Probably Stolen Smuggling Guide: Beat the Inspections

Sources checked 2026-11-03 · Independent fan guide · Single-sourced claims are marked inline

Smuggling in Probably Stolen is a bookkeeping crime: every stolen or counterfeit item you move adds value to a Security case, and the case's size decides your ending. The store page promises you can "hide stolen goods and contraband from the authorities (or bribe your way out if you get caught)" — with raids as the advertised cost of getting it wrong. Tpose Gaming's version: treat illegal goods like radioactive cats.

How the Security case actually ends you

India Times' endings guide gives the thresholds, and Wikily corroborates them:

The 1,500-credit line matters more than any single deal: offenses accumulate, so a long run of small-time fencing can tip a case from a fine into a death sentence. India Times notes a smaller case may just draw a fine you can pay — unless you can't, which also ends in arrest.

Hide it: Smuggler Bays

Dedicated hidden storage is the counter to inspections. Tpose Gaming names Smuggler Bays as the good option for the "spicy stuff", and warns the flip side: contraband left in the open display can trigger inspections, sting operations or Security reputation hits. The patch history shows the developer tuning exactly this system:

• Hotfix 1.0.0.1 stopped items inside a Smuggler Bay from being confiscated when the bay was in the trash can, or (for the Mini Smuggler Bay) after it had been kept behind the poster.
• The same hotfix blocked the Hypertech Storage Bay from being placed inside Smuggler Bays.
• Hotfix 1.0.0.5 stopped the Underground Exchange's Smuggler Bay Mod being thrown out with the trash if you left it there overnight.

Wikily's wiki maintains dedicated pages for stolen goods and heat, evidence, and fines — the mechanics beyond the endings above are still being documented there (not yet verified).

Who you sell to is the risk

The store page puts it plainly: you never really know who is on the other side of the counter — today's customer could be "a security fisher for evidence". Approve, refuse, report, or look away; someone is always taking notes. Tpose Gaming's practical rules: selling to the right shady contacts is fine; selling to the wrong person is how you meet an inspector.

Reporting cuts both ways. Into Indie Games' day-seven run shows the choice in miniature: a thief arrived offering contraband, the writer turned her in, and lost Black Market reputation for it. Tpose notes the same cost applies to reporting sketchy customers generally — think before snitching — with one launch-week carve-out: since hotfix 1.0.0.1, reporting Lou no longer lowers Black Market reputation.

The Fence start and the counterfeit angle

The Fence is one of the nine 1.0 starting scenarios: buy and resell stolen merchandise at a discount, with hiding goods from Security (and bribing your way out when caught) as the actual job description, per the store page and the 1.0 announcement. Counterfeiting is the adjacent hustle the same announcement sells: cut product quality, relabel counterfeits as genuine, sell them to the arrogant elite. The relabeling rules of thumb from Into Indie Games' run — tourists, upper-level customers and scavengers will buy; lower-level citizens and Security will not — are in the crafting and items guide.

The clean path pays in achievements

If smuggling's ledger risk reads as not worth it, Clean Hands pays you for staying clean: win without ever selling stolen goods or contraband. Only 1.7% of players globally hold it — rarer than the standard Rock Bottom win at 2.0% (Steam global stats, read 2026-11-03). India Times lists it among the achievements to plan from day one rather than retrofit.

For the full endings picture — including the Cartel quota a chemistry operation inherits — see the endings guide and the factions guide.